The Presidential Result
After a volatile presidential race over the last few months, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the US Presidential election on the 5th November, becoming the 47th president of the United States. Trump’s presidency will starkly change the running of the US, having previously been under Democratic leadership, with strongly held positions on foreign policy, immigration, the economy, trade, social issues and the environment. Consequently, his presidency will likely have significant implications for both the US and the rest of the world.
POLITICAL
Political Polarisation
A main implication of Trump’s presidency will likely be the further polarisation of American politics. Trump’s presidency has historically exacerbated political and social divisions in the US, with strong support from fellow republicans and intense opposition from liberals. Having been elected for a second term, this could deepen these divisions creating heightened political tensions between conservatives and liberals, as his policies tend to greatly benefit his biggest supporters whilst alienating his critics. This could therefore lead to increased political gridlock and social unrest amongst the US, creating a fragmented political landscape.
International Relations
Trump’s approach to international relations through his ‘America First’ approach focuses on the prioritisation of US interests above international relations. This will likely redefine the US’s role in the global sphere and creates potential for relations with traditional US allies to be strained. Trump’s engagement with authoritarian leaders such as Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un will likely continue, challenging the norms of diplomacy. Furthermore, Trump has criticised NATO, the EU and other international organisations, and has hinted towards withdrawing from crucial international treaties such as the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organisation. This will likely result in a more isolationist US foreign policy and have significant consequences such as exacerbating potential trade conflicts and increased global instability.
ECONOMIC
Tax Cuts
Trump’s economic policies were a significant selling point for many Americans, given a period of prior economic hardship. Trump’s tax cuts, primarily implemented through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017 significantly lowered corporate tax rates and reduced individual tax rates across various brackets. As these cuts are due to expire next year, he proposes to make them permanent. This was designed to stimulate investment, lower unemployment and encourage economic expansion. Although, this may disproportionately benefit wealthy individuals, contributing to the increasing income inequality and furthering the national deficit, exacerbating the US’s national debt which is currently 122% GDP.
Tariffs
Another main economic policy of Trump’s was to impose tariffs on foreign goods entering the US, which he alleged will pay for the proposed tax cuts. This will likely include a significant increased levy on Chinese goods, following trade wars with China, as well as the rest of the world. This will likely lead to adverse economic effects on consumers, leading to higher prices for imported goods and a reduction of spending powers and disposable income. Whilst tariffs may protect certain US industries such as steel or agriculture, this may significantly harm others such as technology and automotive industries, which heavily rely on imported parts and components. This may reduce the competitiveness of US businesses and ultimately harm consumers through adversely higher prices.
SOCIAL
Abortion
Trump’s presidency will likely result in profound social implications, possessing strongly held and controversial opinions on many social issues. Trump’s previous appointments to the Supreme Court tipped the court towards a conservative majority, which contributed to the overturning of Roe v Wade, allowing more than a dozen states to ban almost all abortions. His re-election has the potential to lead to significant challenges to abortion rights. Trump has supported the overturning of Roe v Wade and with a conservative court, there is potential for both state-level and federal governmental abortion restrictions, limiting abortion access. State-level restrictions may also increase with republican-lead legislatures pushing for more restrictive legislation. This poses significant consequences for women accessing reproductive healthcare, within conservative states and the rest of the United States.
LGBTIA+
Furthermore, Trump’s presidency could significantly impact the LGBTQIA+ community. He has voiced strongly held and controversial opinions on policies such as restricting transgender rights, including participation in military services and healthcare protections. Trump’s support for religious freedoms could result in expanded exemptions for religious organisations from non-discrimination laws, allowing services to refuse LGBTQ+ individuals based on religious beliefs, particularly regarding marriage and adoption. Trump’s influence and appointment of conservative judges could have long-lasting effects on the legal landscape for LGBTQIA+ rights, creating a conservative interpretation of significant protections. This could create a hostile social climate for those within the LGBTQIA+ community, resulting in intensified advocates and activists defending their rights.
TECHNOLOGICAL
AI and Elon Musk
Elon Musk, one of Trump’s biggest donors, seems to gain substantially from Trump’s election. In relation to AI, Musk - who owns an AI company xAI - would seemly benefit from “light-touch” regulation. Other tech elites that supported Trump would also benefit from such regulation, such as Marc Andreessen, who is associated with the more radical “accelerationist” wing of AI development. However, Trump’s position on AI may be more nuanced, Musk who is expected to co-lead new department of government efficiency, has supported a controversial California bill that would have imposed safety standards on AI models as well as being a signatory in a letter calling for a pause in work on powerful AI technology. Trump’s approach to AI therefore remains uncertain.
Antitrust and “big tech”
Trump’s approach to big tech, especially goggle, also remains uncertain. However, many speculate that Trump is considering appointing antitrust officials who may follow Biden’s administration crackdown on “Big Tech’s” market dominance, representing a break from traditional Republican policy. This seems likely as both frontrunners to lead the Federal Trade Commission, the body that enforces consumer protection and anti-monopoly laws, will likely follow the tough enforcement stance of Biden’s progressive officials. It is also important to consider the Republicans long-standing feud with goggle - Vice President JD Vance going as far as to say it should be broken up.
LEGAL
Can Trump escape prosecution?
Firstly, in theory Trump could pardon himself (Presidential Pardon), however, this would be unprecedented and more importantly can only apply to federal cases. Therefore, this means that Trump couldn’t pardon himself of the 34 state felony charges relating to the New York hush money case. Interesting though, the sentencing for this case has been repeatedly pushed back leading some to believe that he will escape sentencing. Secondly, in relation to the Georgia election case, in which Trump is facing serious criminal charges over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election in that state, it is most likely the case will be “paused” during Trump’s presidency. What follows after his presidency remains uncertain.
Impact on the rule of law
Trump’s ability to escape and delay prosecution seriously threatens the rule of law in America as it suggests that Trump is above the law. While his supporters will argue that the prosecutions he faces themselves are politically motivated and a result of a biased judiciary. Trump’s numerous felony charges and ongoing cases raise serious questions as to the involvement of politics in the American judiciary as well as implications on the rule of law.
ENVIRONMENTAL
Renewable energy transition
Many expect that Trump’s administration will hinder the transition to renewable energy in two major ways. Firstly, Trump is expected to remove or amend Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which incentivised renewable energy development. Secondly, there may be an increase in fossil fuel leases on federal land, which would benefit fossil fuel sector and thus slow the growth of “green” energy development. Critics of Trump have argued that this will make U.S. less attractive to investors looking to develop green energy and crucially will place the nation at a competitive disadvantage in the long term if its green energy sector falls behind its competition.
International obligations
Trump, who has described climate change as a “hoax”, divisively withdrew from the Paris Agreement during his first term. Critics argue his return to power and the return to his “America First” philosophy may risk isolating the U.S. from a growing coalition of nations tacking climate change head on. This philosophy may hinder diplomatic relations and weaken the multinational effort to reduce emissions among the other largest emitters such as China and India.
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